Japan’s Volcanic Hazards as Components of Complex Systems: Nuclear Power Plants in Japan are Threatened
Gregory Smits
The past year or so has been a time of particularly vigorous volcanic activity in Japan, or at least activity that has intruded into public awareness. Perhaps most dramatic was the deadly eruption of Mt. Ontake on September 27, 2014, whose 57 fatalities were the first volcano-related deaths in Japan since 1991. On May 29, 2015, Mt. Shindake, off the southern tip of Kyushu, erupted violently, forcing the evacuation of the island of Kuchinoerabu.
That same day, Sakurajima, located just north in Kagoshima Bay, erupted more forcefully than usual. Sakurajima has been erupting in some fashion almost continuously since 1955, but since 2006, its activity has become relatively more vigorous. Indeed, a May 30 Asahi shinbun article characterized these eruptions as “the latest ominous sign that the Earth’s crust around the archipelago is getting restless.” The article argued that the twentieth century was an anomaly in that volcanic activity throughout Japan was relatively subdued, whereas the more vigorous activity of recent years is closer to the long-term normal pattern.1
Warnings of an impending eruption of the long-dormant Mt. Fuji have been common throughout the years of the twenty-first century. After the March 11, 2011 disaster (hereafter “3/11”), the frequency of hypothesized imminent eruptions of Mt. Fuji increased. For example, retired professor Kimura Masaaki, known for making grandiose predictions about earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, published books on Mt. Fuji’s eruption (already underway according to Kimura’s claims) in 2011 and 2112.2 Especially influential was a short July 2014 article in the journal Science. This study of perturbations of the earth’s crust suggested Mt. Fuji is more likely to erupt owing to effects from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake.3 Well publicized by a press release on the eve of its publication, mass media around the world have reported this finding, along with speculation regarding possible connections between earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
As of June 30, 2015, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) designated ten volcanoes in or near the main Japanese islands as warranting levels of warning ranging from Mt. Shindake’s Level 5 (“Evacuate”), to Level 2 (“Do not approach the crater”) in seven cases. Sakurajima is at Level 3 (“Do not approach the volcano”), as is Hakoneyama, located near Mt. Fuji. Despite often-sensational reports about Mt. Fuji, it is not currently on the JMA volcanic warning list.4
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