Could Solar Cycle 24 Have a Latent and Unwanted Surprise?
Mitch Battros
Something is not quite right with our Sun. Some solar physicists are getting down right jittery. What's going on and should I be nervous?
I would use the words 'concerned and 'prepared'. The Sun is currently in solar minimum but should be showing gradual increased activity, but it is not. There is some debate as to when this new solar cycle began. Cycle 24 as announced last year by many in the solar sciences community began on July 31st 2007 as indicated by the first sunspot pole reversal (which is the indicator of a new cycle). However, there is some legitimate dispute suggesting the sunspot in question was too low of the equator and should not count.
There is another team of solar physicists who believe the single sunspot on January 4th 2008 was in a higher latitude which had a pole reversal therefore giving this group confirmation Solar Cycle 24 began on this date. For the record I align with the July 31st date due to the empirical peer reviewed data and numbered scientists I have interviewed or met. But this 'is not' the story.
What I believe to be unfolding is the eerie quiet before the storm. It is very much the same scenario as when there are too few moderate to large earthquakes allowing pressure to build up until suddenly there is an enormous release ripping the Earth with a magnitude 8.0 or larger.
The Sun has been too quiet --- the question is, does this indicate another long period of zero to little sunspot activity ushering in a new 'little ice age'? Or is Father Sun playing peak-a-boo with us, only to release its full thrust beginning late next year reaching its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2011 and into 2012? Either scenario certainly demands we pay attention and utilize our resources accordingly.
A person I often disagree with is David Hathaway, NASA's solar forecasting star performer. (star as in bling-bling - not necessarily science). He has been dead wrong on many occasions, as outlined in our time-to-time head banging arguments noted in the ECM archives -- but like all science, one needs to keep an open mind and a razor sharp skill of 'critical thinking'.
Hathaway believes we are still in Cycle 23 and witnessing a normal slow decaying cycle which in his opinion is "neither low nor long". He reports he has studied international sunspot counts stretching back to 1749 and indicated period cycles which were longer than the average 11 year cycle. However, I and a list of highly respected and qualified scientific researchers believe Cycle 24 has already begun. Furthermore, we believe it will be even stronger than Cycle 23, as much as 50% stronger.
Now here is where Hathaway and I do agree. The 'Sun' is the major 
player in climate fluctuation. In a period when there is very little sunspot activity, the Earth experiences a 'cooling trend'. Of course the opposite is just as true. The Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715 (Also known as the Little Ice Age) is the longest minimum on record which lasted a very long 70 years. Sunspots were rarely observed and the solar cycle seemed to have broken down completely.
In describing the events of the Little Ice Age, Hathaway and his colleagues endorse ECM's "Equation". Hathaway states: "The period of quiet sunspot activity coincided with the Little Ice Age, ushering in a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's northern hemisphere." Many researchers are convinced that low solar activity, acting in concert with increased volcanism and possible changes in ocean current patterns, played a role in that 17th century cooling.
Equation: Sunspots => Solar Flares (charged particles) => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)
My 3rd book coming out next June is titled "Galactic Rain: The Cause of Our Sun's Cycles". It goes into the why's and how's of what creates solar cycles, and gives seasoned hypothesis for abnormal cooling and warming trends. It also observes in pungent detail of what might happen in 2012 as solar cycle 24 reaches its 'apex'.
As stated in a recent NASA release: "For reasons no one understands, the sunspot cycle revived itself in the early 18th century ending the Little Ice Age, and for whatever reason has carried on since with the familiar 11-year period. Because solar physicists do not understand what triggered the Maunder Minimum or exactly how it influenced Earth's climate, they are always on the look-out for signs that it might be happening again." The coming book "Galactic Rain" is set to explore these mystical unknowns, and the answers may develop a whole new field of science.
Just as with all 'too quiet' periods of earthquake activity, watch for Solar Cycle 24 to begin its ramping up starting next year, and if current scientific and ancient text predictions are correct, we had all better watch closely and remain "aware and prepare" for the storm many will not have expected.