'HELLO, CENTRAL!' YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO (Updated Jan. 12, 2009)
Patrick H. Bellringer
I have been looking into this big time, and it seems many people who research volcanoes and Yellowstone have evidence that recent records of Harmonic tremors have been removed from USGS site, but they are still on other sites. The swarms have slowed down some, but they are still happening. And there is no mention of the harmonic tremors at all. Then they remove them from the sites soon after being posted???
Ok, current facts are these;
1 - For the last twenty years, the magma chamber has been filling up.
2 - Earthquakes worldwide are right off the scale!
3 - There is a prominent bulge under the lake, that has been studied extensively recently.
4 - The recent swarms of earthquakes are directly under the lake.
5 - The main thing to watch for around the lake is Harmonic tremors, because that signifies that the magma is moving. But they haven't admitted that there have been records of these since the 26th of December. Records that have been removed from USGS site.
6 - So.. if they know there are harmonic tremors, why haven't they told us?
7 - Watch the movie Supervolcano, and you will see glaringly obvious similarities to what is going on right now. Especially the parts about them having the evidence, yet not alerting the public and evacuating. Is it because they don't want the panic seen in the movie? That would be my guess.
I've been told that the GF are watching Yellowstone closely, and the second it starts to blow, they push the button to start full-scale evacuation. The only safe place to be during a Yellowstone major eruption is on the starships. And they also said this could get bad.
Naturally, the explosion would start the pole shift.
T
(Response)
"They're certainly not normal," Smith said. "We haven't had earthquakes in this energy or extent in many years."
Smith directs the Yellowstone Seismic Network, which operates seismic stations around the park. He said the quakes have ranged in strength from barely detectable to one of magnitude 3.8 that happened Saturday. A magnitude 4 quake is capable of producing moderate damage.
"This is an active volcanic and tectonic area, and these are the kinds of things we have to pay attention to," Smith said. "We might be seeing something precursory.
"Could it develop into a bigger fault or something related to hydrothermal activity? We don't know. That's what we're there to do, to monitor it for public safety."
The strongest of dozens of tremors Monday was a magnitude 3.3 quake shortly after noon. All the quakes were centered beneath the northwest end of Yellowstone Lake.
A park ranger based at the north end of the lake reported feeling nine quakes over a 24-hour period over the weekend, according to park spokeswoman Stacy Vallie. No damage was reported.
"There doesn't seem to be anything to be alarmed about," Vallie said.
Smith said it's difficult to say what might be causing the tremors. He pointed out that Yellowstone is the caldera of a volcano that last erupted 70,000 years ago.
He said Yellowstone remains very geologically active - and its famous geysers and hot springs are a reminder that a pool of magma still exists five to 10 miles underground.
"That's just the surface manifestation of the enormous amount of heat that's being released through the system," he said.
Yellowstone has had significant earthquakes as well as minor ones in recent decades. In 1959, a magnitude 7.5 quake near Hebgen Lake just west of the park triggered a landslide that killed 28 people.
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People out here in Yellowstone-land are reporting weird pet and human behavior - moodiness, restlessness, etc. Also some strange wildlife encounters, such as a fox that will not quit barking, flying squirrels very active in daylight and a bull elk running down the highway (should have migrated down the mountain weeks ago, but it came back for some reason), grizzly bears that have not hibernated yet. Waiting to hear from friends in the park about wolves, bison, elk, wintering birds, etc. Adds another dimension to small talk - usually it's just about how much snow we have, how many plows are broken down, etc.
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http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/seismic_activity_at_yellowston.php
More questions from Rufus the layman: Numerous postings on other sites claim that the outflow from Lake Yellowstone has increased dramatically the last few days..Is that true???.Might that not indicate that the bulge under the lake is growing and displacing more water???....Other posters allege that rivers in various locations around YNP are showing higher temps then normal??.....I notice that activity has really quieted at Yellowstone today..I was a teenager living in Portland when Mt St Helens blew in 1980, ( I could actually see it from my porch in Portland's SW hills)..As I recall the activity; steam & ash columns and the formation of the bulge, started in late March and continued, more or less continously until May 14, when, as I recall, activity ceased...Then four days later the Mountain blew...Is that a normal pattern for explosive eruptions??.
Thanks for your answers to my previous questions....
Most of the post was cut off... what I said was that they can only claim lack of concurrent eruption indicators because they're not looking for them. There's no camera on the Lake to see gas emmisions. There's no temperature sensors to see increases. They won't do a bathymetric survey to compare to the 2003 survey to detect Lake bed deformations. Their seismographs are too dispersed to resolve magma chamber deformations
I have found the spot of the next Super-eruption. It is the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff Fault.The first caldera. It runs through the middle of the lake, precisely where the swarm began. On top of the fault is the West Thumb lava flow. This cap has fractured. The first caldera rim also intersects with the Sour Creek Dome. The next eruption will begin just north of the Lake along the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff and Sour Creek fissures.The Elephant Back fissures also intersect the original caldera. The fault under the lake will allow water to enter the subterranean aquafiers. This will lead to the collapse of the geyer systems which will trap steam on top of the chamber. The system will be in a cascade once the process begins. Link to my small scale experiment to see what will happen. It will happen soon. In fact it may have already started.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zULevzGwGn0&feature=channel_page
Dear Pyre,
Sorry for the confusion. To clearify, I have found the precise location of where the next Super-eruption will begin. The next Super-eruption will begin along the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff where it intersects with the Sour Creek Dome.
"Scientists know it as the deadliest volcano on Earth. You know it...as Yellowstone." — Supervolcano docudrama, Discovery Channel, 2005
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK — Small earthquakes in the Yellowstone Lake area could alter the park’s thermal features, University of Utah scientists said this week. There have been more than 500 earthquakes in a nearly two week period that began on Saturday, December 27.
Read here:
http://www.islandparknews.net/printatf.php?sid=5643¤t_edition=2009-01-02
Experts are watching, and probably sipping their coffee, too.
By BRETT FRENCH
Of The Gazette Staff
Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009
Image 1. Yellowstone Lake showing location and times of the recent
earthquakes from Dec. 27, 2008 (blue) to Jan. 8, 2009 (red). The
M 3.0 and greater earthquakes are shown as stars, the smaller
earthquakes are shown as circles. During the swarm, the earthquake
locations appear to have moved north. For more information on the
depths of the earthquakes, see the cross section from X to X' below.
Click on the image for a full-size version.
Seismic activity at Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park increased in late December 2008. As of January 8, 2009, the seismic activity has markedly decreased (Listen to a podcast with YVO's Scientist-in-Charge about the recent swarm). It is possible that the swarm has ended, although a return of activity may occur as previous Yellowstone swarms of this size have lasted for tens of days to many weeks. Swarms are common at Yellowstone. The last notable swarm occurred in 2004, please see our 2004 article, Yellowstone Earthquake Swarms for more background on earthquakes and swarms at Yellowstone.
Seismologists continue to review the earthquakes
About 900 earthquakes occurred between Dec. 26, 2008 and Jan. 8, 2009 in the Yellowstone Lake area. Five hundred of the earthquakes (including all greater than magnitude 2.0) have been reviewed by seismologists. There were 111 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 2.0 (> M2.0)and 18 earthquakes > M3.0. About 400 smaller earthquakes have yet to be reviewed. [A new Frequently Asked Question about earthquake analysis will be posted here soon]. The largest earthquake during the swarm was a magnitude 3.9 on Sunday, December 28, 2008. One of the analyses seismologists use to talk about earthquakes and swarms is the cumulative seismic moment, which is a measure of the earthquake energy. The cumulative moment (the energy from all the analyzed earthquakes in the swarm) for the Yellowstone Lake Swarm is equal to the energy of a single magnitude 4.5 earthquake (see Image 3).
Depths for shallow earthquake hypocenters (the point within the earth where an earthquake rupture starts) are difficult to determine accurately unless the seismic stations are spaced much more closely than those in the Yellowstone Seismic Network. The best located earthquakes have hypocenters (depths) of 3 to 10 km (1.8 to 6.0 miles). From Dec. 26 through Jan 2, the hypocenters appear to have migrated northwards, starting southeast of near Stevenson Island, with many of the latest events occurring near Fishing Bridge.
Image 2. The depth versus location of the Yellowstone Lake
earthquake swarm from X to X' on the Yellowstone Lake map.
Earthquakes are shown from Dec. 27, 2008 (blue) to
Jan. 8, 2009 (red). The M 3.0 and greater earthquakes are shown as
stars, the smaller earthquakes are shown as circles. Click on the
image for a full-size version.
Swarms are normal at Yellowstone
The recent swarm is well above typical activity at Yellowstone. Nevertheless it is not unprecedented during the last 40 years of monitoring. Earthquake swarms within the Yellowstone caldera are typical, with magnitudes occasionally ranging above 4.0. The 1985 swarm on the northwest rim of the caldera lasted for three months, with earthquakes up to M4.9 and over 3000 total events recorded.
The magnitudes of earthquakes in this swarm range from zero to 3.9. Earthquakes with magnitudes less than 3.4 are generally not felt by people unless they are very shallow and you are standing very close to the epicenter (point on the earth's surface above the hypocenter). For perspective, earthquakes of magnitude 3.4 to 4.5 are often felt and there were multiple reports of felt earthquakes during this swarm. A magnitude 5 or greater is generally required to produce damage to buildings or other structures.
Image 3. Number of reviewed Yellowstone Lake earthquakes in six-hour and three-hour
intervals from 12/27/08 to 01/06/09. The green line on the left figure gives the cumulative
number of earthquakes; the steep slopes correspond to increase in earthquake number. The
red line in the figure on the right gives the cumulative moment, or energy; its sharp
increase in the first few days is due to a greater number of large earthquakes with their
greater energy release. The total cumulative moment is equivalent in energy to about one
M 4.5 earthquake. Click on the image for a full-size version.
New equipment allowed us to monitor the swarm
Improved volcano and seismic monitoring at Yellowstone gives us a greater ability to locate earthquakes, understand their source process and identify anomalous sources of seismic activity. New equipment including precise measurements of ground motion by GPS receivers and borehole strainmeters provided by the National Science Foundation's EarthScope and Continental Dynamics Program have been used extensively during the last week of intense earthquake activity. Ground motions accompanying the swarm, from the GPS instruments will take two or more weeks to fully process. It is worth noting that in 2004 the Yellowstone caldera began a period of accelerated uplift measured by GPS instruments that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr), three times as fast as recorded in the recorded history but has now reduced to about a maximum rate of 4 cm/yr. Scientists have modeled this deformation as due to magmatic recharge of the Yellowstone magma chamber at a depth of ~10 km (6 miles). The area of the swarm is on the eastern side of the uplift area. For more information on the uplift, please see our article Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera.
There are several causes for earthquakes
Earthquakes at Yellowstone are caused by a combination of geological factors including: 1) regional stress associated with normal faults (those where the valleys go down relative to the mountains) such as the nearby Teton and Hebgen Lake faults, 2) magmatic movements at depth (>7 kms or 4 miles), and 3) hydrothermal fluid activity caused as the groundwater system is heated to boiling by magmatic heat.
At this time, no one has noted any anomalous changes in surface discharges (hot springs, gas output, etc.).We continue to monitor Yellowstone Volcano
YVO staff from the USGS, University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park continue to carefully review all data streams that are recorded in real-time. At this time, there is no reason to believe that magma has risen to a shallow level within the crust or that a volcanic eruption is likely. The USGS Volcano Alert Level and Aviation Color Code for Yellowstone remain at Normal and Green.
Yellowstone National Park is evaluating infrastructure near the north end of Yellowstone Lake to assess if any damage has occurred to facilities.
Winter visitor activities and staff operations have not been impacted and continue as normal.
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region. Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.
Other items of interest
- More Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Images
- Jan 7, 2009: Podcast with YVO's Scientist-in-Charge, Jake Lowenstern, about the recent swarm
- Oct 2004 Web Article: Earthquake Swarms at Yellowstone
- Jan 2004 Web Article: Frequently asked questions about findings at Yellowstone Lake
- Nov. 2007 Web Article: Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera
- March 2007: Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity.
- Nov. 2006: Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006-2015
- Monitoring super-volcanoes: geophysical and geochemical signals at Yellowstone and other large caldera systems
- 2006 Web Article: Satellite Technologies Detect Uplift in the Yellowstone Caldera
- NVEWS report May 2005: An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System
- 2005 Article: Truth, fiction and everything in between at Yellowstone
- 2005 Fact Sheet:Steam Explosions, Earthquakes, and Volcanic Eruptions — What's in Yellowstone's Future?
- 2004 Fact Sheet: Tracking Changes in Yellowstone's Restless Volcanic System
- 2003 Web Article: Notable Changes in Thermal Activity at Norris Geyser Basin Provide Opportunity to Study Hydrothermal System
Today just like in the movie we get snippets of information from the team monitoring the situation at Yellowstone saying this is a different from any events they have seen at Yellowstone before and they are not sure what is causing it.
The facts:
The tremor swarm is still going on for the 6^th^ day. It will sometimes calm for a few hours but as soon as you think it is over the seismographs yet again start beating out a tempo of small tremors. And when coupled with other disturbing signs such as an increase in water flow from the frozen Yellowstone Lake directly above the tremors we know that the ground has become restless. Something is undeniably happening at Yellowstone.
Do a web search on Yellowstone and you will see a pattern of concern over the last several years at new and different events have happened and sometimes baffled scientists. All of the events when taken as a whole could point to something happening at Yellowstone.
The fact is now something is happening; earthquake swarms of this size and duration at known volcanoes often precede events at those volcanoes. .
A great quote from the movie Supervolcano was made by Michael Riley playing the role of Richard 'Rick' Lieberman
"When Mt. Vesuvius erupted, the people of Pompeii stayed in their homes, how do we know that Ken?"
This correlation could mean that ground deformation (raising) is taking place under Yellowstone Lake as a direct result of the earthquakes and harmonic tremors ongoing since December 26th.
****(All data devices waterflow and sesmic resumed data feeds late this afternoon, per note below they were offline for several hours)*****
It is also interesting to note that the University of Utah and USGS started taking the web reports from many of many of the seismographs in Yellowstone off-line yesterday afternoon so the general public can no longer view them.
Harmonic tremors have started to show up again tonight (1-1-2009).
Take a look at the seismograph from the YML_EHZ_WY ( Mary Lake, Yellowstone Park, WY ):
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/Uuss.YML_EHZ_WY.2009010100.gif
Some people are using the argument that a much large swarm occurred in 1985 and there was no eruption.
However, would I be correct in saying that they did not pick up harmonic tremors AND those occurred away from the lake near a fault line and so therefore, these situations are different?
I agree, these also look harmonic:
http://mbmgquake.mtech.edu/earthworm/wavef_disp/RLMT_BHZ_US.2009010200.gif
and from what little I know having read up on this but being no scientist: yes the swarm is unusually shallow, unusually intense, unusually long in duration and it is now accompanied by harmonics. Also the bulge has increased in height three inches a year for the last three years, where previously it had not raised at all.
Hi Elizabeth
Nice to see some of us are staying alert to the possibilities.
Interestingly, there is also abnormal activity around 40 miles south of the lake at Flagg Ranch. This is the only monitor in the Teton range that is showing activity.
http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/teton/Uuss.FLWY_SHZ_IW.2009010200.gif
After evaluating data by seismic intensity, a very clear picture is emerging of quiet areas of almost no activity to the north and east of the caldera and the area of highest seismic activity (constant harmonic tremors, short interval) on monitors all around the lake edge, going south to Flagg Ranch, extending WNW just beyond the caldera and NE, again just a little ways out of the caldera. Areas of medium activity are, as expected, generally between areas of high and areas of low activity. ALL monitors within the caldera are showing "hot" or "medium" activity.
WHY are no precautionary evacuations being initiated, at least for the park itself? I am reporting from England. My colleagues are as concerned as I am. We have NO media reports on these events over here whatsoever. I can't believe this!
We have JUST seen another swarm of quakes, with 3 quakes at 3.0 and higher inside of 11 minutes.
Check this link:
http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html
Look at the quake list below. They DO seen to be getting shallower. The magma is moving, possibly upwards.
Watching the data recorders with bated breath and VERY sweaty palms..
YELLOWSTONE LAKE
http://www.quake.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/Uuss.LKWY_SHZ_US.2009010200.gif
MARY LAKE
http://www.quake.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/yellowstone/Uuss.YML_EHZ_WY.2009010200.gif
FLAGG RANCH40KM SOUTH OF YELLOWSTONE LAKE
http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/heli/teton/Uuss.FLWY_SHZ_IW.2009010200.gif
Hit "Reload" every 10 minutes or so for updates.
These ARE harmonic tremors. Magma is moving under the lake.
I, for one, am extremely concerned.