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Russian chiefs riveted as regimes unravel

Joseph Farah

Analysts suggest Moscow may be vulnerable to likeminded protesters

Editor's Note: The following report is excerpted from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, the premium online newsletter published by the founder of WND. Subscriptions are $99 a year or, for monthly trials, just $9.95 per month for credit card users, and provide instant access for the complete reports.

As autocratic regimes across the Middle East have unraveled in recent days, including today's abdication by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, officials in Moscow are riveted – concerned that Russia could face the same fate as Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Yemen, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

As across the Middle and Northern Africa, Islamist militants have been stepping up their attacks in Russia and regional analysts say their plans are the creation of an Islamic caliphate.

To date, Islamist terrorists have launched some nine attacks in Moscow, the latest one being last month at Moscow's main Domodedovo airport.

"You may remember that nearly 12 years ago Putin began building his reputation as a tough, no-nonsense leader by promising rather crudely to pursue terrorists everywhere, catch them in airport toilets and 'waste them in the outhouse,'" said Alex Alexiev, a fellow at the U.S. think-tank Hudson Institute, referring to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Given the increased level of attacks, Alexiev said, the terrorists "seem to be telling the Russian people that Putin can talk all he wants but is incapable of protecting them."

Analysts also see an increasing number of ethnic Russians embracing Islam as a way to counter the regime.

"A large part of the people embrace Islam in order to be engaged in terrorism and to overthrow the government," said Roman Silantyev of the Russian intelligence service, or FSB. "Many of them come from Nazi organizations, with many of them leaving the Nazi organizations to join Islam. They have a simple logical goal to cause maximum damage to authorities."

The FSB officer pointed out that a similar development occurred a hundred years ago in an anti-Tsarist push in which "city guerrilla groups engaged in terrorism. Now, citizens with similar ideas believe that terrorist activities should be carried out by means of Islam which they consider to be the most reliable instrument for the armed struggle."

Alexiev said that Putin had made promises to the Russian people that he would provide security and improve the economy through increased energy prices, but the Russian prime minister indicated that it would be done under a more autocratic rule.

Alexiev pointed out that the origins of insurgency had begun in Chechnya, in which Putin had given "carte blanche" to what he referred to as a "Chechen thug," Ramzan Kadyrov, to put down the insurgency there. He said that Kadyrov has resorted to brutal methods, including torture, kidnapping and the murder of innocent relatives of the insurgents, making Chechnya virtually a lawless entity.

He said that such brutal tactics transformed the original Chechen nationalist struggle for autonomy into a region-wide radical Islamist movement aimed at establishing a Caucasus Emirate under Shariah law and to rid the region of the "infidels."

Such developments not only have occurred in the North Caucasus region of Chechnya but also neighboring Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkaria, all of which has had the effect of driving most ethnic Russians out of the region.

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Feb 11, 2011

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