Recombinomics Commentary 15:28
December 30, 2009
http://www.recombin
3,753,896 Influenza/ARI
212,349 Hospitalized
727 Dead
The above totals are from the Ukraine Ministry of Health website, indicating the spike in deaths is increasing. The 727 dead are 29 higher than yesterday’s report and brings the total deaths in the past 96 hours to 94. The rate of one death per hour for the past four days is similar to the rate at the beginning of the outbreak in October.
The five deaths in Donetsk again were the highest, but four deaths in Crimea was associated with the curtailing of holiday activities in an attempt to control the spread (see map). The increases in deaths in Ukraine has attracted international attention because sequences from initial cases had receptor binding domain changes at position 225 (D225G and D225N). These results have led to further analysis by other countries, and sequences released from lung samples for patients in three regions of Russia also had D225G, raising concerns that the change was becoming more widespread, which could lead to a catastrophic wave in the upcoming weeks.
The recent sequences from Russia are distinct from each other signaling continued expansion of D225G/N via recombination, which is also happening with the Tamiflu resistance marker H274Y. Patients with both markers have increased concerns that a much more virulent H1N1 could also be resistant to Tamiflu and Peramivir.
These evolving developments continue to increase concerns, WHO proclamations notwithstanding.
labvirus.wordpress.com/2009/12/31/ukraine-fatalities-spike-to-727-one-day-total-29/
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Recombinomics Commentary 15:28
December 30, 2009
http://www.recombin
Recombinomics Commentary 20:08
December 29, 2009
207,013 Hospitalized
675 Dead
193,518 Hospitalized
615 Dead
189.400 Hospitalized
597 Dead
185,401 total hospitalizations (3804 today)
577 total dead (10 today)
171,076 Hospitalized
539 Deaths
December 20, 2009
173,433 Hospitalized
545 Deaths
164,242 Hospitalized
518 Deaths
2,802,679 Influenza/ARI
160,491 Hospitalized
513 Dead
December 15, 2009
The above numbers are from today's Ministry of Health update on the H1N1 situation in Ukraine. Deaths have passed to 500 mark, but the above numbers show a major jump in cases, which are 143,961 higher than yesterday (see map). Donetsk increased 16,352 to 225,476 and Dnipropetrovsk increased 15,236 to 297,971. The latest figures extend a reversal of the downturn and clear represent a new wave in Ukraine. This new wave suggests similar results will be seen in the region, setting the stage for a major peak throughout the northern hemisphere in early 2010.
In addition, media reports said that over 200 fatalities have been H1N1 lab confirmed, setting the stage for a robust sequence database. Mill Hill released data on 10 isolates at GISAID, which included nine from hard hit western Ukraine in October. Five of the nine were from nasopharyngeal washes and were similar to isolates from Norway. However, all four of the HA sequences from fatal cases had D225G. Similarly, the CDC released data on five cases. Three matched the Mill Hill data on nasopharyngeal washes, while two were new and were likely fatal cases. Both had D225N, raising concerns that the receptor binding domain changes played a role in the fatal result. Both of these polymorphisms are rare in pandemic HA sequences at GISAID and Genbank. Results for other countries highlighted the linkage between RBD changes and fatal or severe outcomes. However, since changes ar position 225 can alter receptor binding specificity, it would be useful to have multiple samples from these fatal cases.
The more than 200 confirmed fatal cases should lead to a rapid increase in the sequence database from Ukraine.
http://www.recombin