The Moscow Bombing - A Classic Chechen 'Black Widow' Operation
Yossef Bodansky.
The bombing took place at peak rush hour. The first martyr-bomber detonated herself at 7:56am in the Lubyanka station which serves the Kremlin’s bureaucracy. The second martyr-bomber detonated herself at 8:37am in the Park Kulturi station, a connection and transfer station from the Ring Line leading to
The
A couple of such changes of heart did happen during the first half of this decade, providing the Kremlin with tremendous intelligence gains. Therefore, the jihadists developed a system of female chaperons who escort the would-be martyrs to the spot of detonation to make sure they could not abandon their mission. They leave the would-be martyrs only a few minutes before detonation. The Metro CCTV recorded the presence of, and hovering by, such chaperons in both Metro stations.
The CCTV recordings also enabled the Russian security forces to already locate the bus driver in the line between Chechnya and Moscow who took the four women (the two would-be martyr bombers and their chaperons) and a male who seemed to be in charge (and might have also been caught in the CCTV).
The waist-bombs worn by the two martyr bombers were of a modern design. This type of bomb was perfected in recent years by the jihadists in
The bomb at the Lubyanka station had only 4kg of high-explosives and the bomb at the Park Kulturi station had 2kg. At the same time, these waist-bombs are more lethal in crowded places because of more concentrated directional explosions and a better distribution of shrapnel. Initial forensic evidence suggests that both bombs also had secondary-fuses which could be activated by cell-phones; probably a fall-back method in case the “Black Widows” hesitate at the last minute.
The mere fact that the female martyr-bombers were wearing this kind of waist-bombs is in itself a strong indication of direct connection between the perpetrators in Moscow and the jihadist training facilities along the Durand Line in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Indeed, Pakistani senior intelligence officials concur that the
The mere occurrence of terrorist strikes in
These were anticipated for a long time. Given the evolving security regime within the jihadist movement, it was only a question of time before a jihadist team would strike out at the heart of
The imminence of jihadist strikes at the heart of Russia has been the result of a confluence of two major developments: (1) The rejuvenation and escalation of the training and preparation infrastructure along the Durand Line in Afghanistan-Pakistan; and (2) The expansion of the jihadist Jamaat system in the North Caucasus due to the reopening of supply and support lines via Georgia.
The training infrastructure in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area was restored in the Autumn of 2007 to the point that prolonged and sophisticated courses can now take place without interruption. The main courses are provided to would-be commanders, expert-trainers and organizers from the West. These include a growing number of Western converts (West Europeans, Americans and Russians) who retain their original identity papers and looks for easy travel in the West. This effort is under the personal command of Ilyas Kashmiri, the top Pakistani-Punjabi commander whose 313 Brigade, also known as the Lashkar al-Zil or “Army of the Shadows”, is the primary strike force of the jihadist movement.
The actual training, handling. and control of all foreign fighters is in the hands of a small group of veteran Arab commanders, all of whom are reported to have operated in
Most of the jihadists in these groups arrive from or via
In the last couple of years, the upper-most jihadist leadership has been emphasizing the global importance of the Emirate of the
The jihadist master-plan envisages a pincer offensive launched from the Caucasus and Afghanistan-Pakistan, converging at the heart of Central Asia and then surging northwards into the heart of
With the US-led West disengaging and withdrawing from
In practical terms, the jihadist surge in the
In early December 2009,
The jihadists of the North Caucasus — including the Arab commanders in their midst — came out of the meeting convinced that
The new jihadist focus on the Emirate of the Caucasus emboldened Chechen jihadist leader Dokka Umarov to threaten in mid-January 2010 to unleash a new wave of terrorism at the heart of
Umarov stressed there was no substitute to a marked escalation in the fighting throughout
In mid-February 2010, Umarov formally declared the launch of a strategic offensive against
Operationally, the key to the new jihadist offensive would be the jamaats — literally societies — prevailing in the
With the frustration of the jihadists in the jamaats growing, and their self-radicalization intensifying in their self-imposed isolation from society, so grows their readiness to inflict substantial carnage on society as a manifestation of their own wrath.
Cognizant of the looming threat, Russian intelligence intensified operations against the jihadist elite in the
On March 2, 2010, Russian security services located and target killed Said Buryatsky in the Ekazhevo village in the suburbs of Nazran, Ingushetia. The Russian security services located Buryatsky and his group of guards in a house that served as a bomb making factory for regional operations. The Russians assaulted the building, killing Buryatsky and six mujahedin, and capturing a few wounded mujahedin. The killing of Said Buryatsky — real name Alexander Tikhomirov — was a major achievement.
Buryatsky was a convert from the east Siberian Buryatia region. For many years, he “trained for jihad” in
In this capacity, Buryatsky identified, recruited and indoctrinated several groups of would-be martyr-bombers. Most important is a group of 30 young women smuggled to
A gifted and charismatic imam, Buryatsky also issued numerous jihadist manifestos which had tremendous influence in the jamaat movement. Since 2005, Buryatsky authored the statements taking responsibility for more than 15 terrorist strikes including the August 2009 martyr-bombing of a police headquarters in Ingushetia which killed more than 20 and injured some 140, and the November 2009 bomb attack on the Nevsky Express Moscow-to-St Petersburg train which killed 26 people.
Although Buryatsky was said to have yearned for his own martyrdom in jihad in all his sermons and manifestos, his death leaves a gaping hole in the ideological foundations of the jihadist movement in the
On March 17, 2010, the Russian security forces located and killed six senior mujahedin commanders close to Umarov — three of them Arab — in the village of Khazhi-Yurt in Chechnya’s Vedeno district. One of the commanders was the Arab mujahed Abu-Khaled, then in charge of providing the personal security for Dokka Umarov and his inner-circle. Fearful of penetration by Russian intelligence, the jihadist leaders in the
On March 21, 2010, Russian special forces stormed the house and target-killed Akhmadov.
On March 24, 2010,Russian security forces cornered Emir Sayfullah — real name Anzor Astemirov — in
In 2008, Umarov named him Head of the sharia court of the self-proclaimed Caucasus Emirate, the third-most-senior position in the jihadist hierarchy. Indeed, the communique about Emir Sayfullah’s martyrdom published by the “headquarters of the armed forces of the United Vilayat of Kabarda, Balkaria and Karachai” emphasized that “the Circassian peoples have not had a military commander who enjoyed such respect and authority” since the Caucasus wars of the 19th Century.
On the night of March 27-28, 2010, Russian security forces raided a few jihadist hideouts in
Bashir Pliyev, known as the “Emir of Bashkiria”, and eight members of the local Uighur Bulagaar Jamaat group surrendered without fight. An ethnic Ingush, Pliev joined the jihad while serving as a mole in the Russian Police. After he was suspected in 2005, he escaped and joined Shamil Basayev’s Riyad-us-Saliheen. He was very close to Basayev and served as his driver and guard on several operations. In 2006, Pliev was sent to
The aggregate impact of this chain of target-killings and captures of jihadist commanders is the realization among the jihadist senior leaders that the Russian security services must have discovered ways to identify them and strike at the heart of the jamaat system. Hence, there is a growing pressure on the jihadist jamaats to carry out operations already in the pipeline before their assets are exposed and neutralized by the Russian security forces. By late March 2010, only seven of the 30 “Black Widows” who Buryatsky had indoctrinated and trained were known to be dead. Then, two detonated themselves in
Hence, of this “Black Widows” group alone there are 19 unaccounted for would-be martyr-bombers. As there are numerous other would-be martyrs trained and indoctrinated by Buryatsky and several other sheikhs and emirs in other jamaats, the threat of spectacular terrorism at the heart of Russia, as well as in the North Caucasus, is far from over.
Despite the impressive successes of the Russian security forces, the jamaat system remains extremely difficult to identify and penetrate because of its inherent character and structure. There should be no doubt that there are numerous jamaat cells throughout
The recent reactivation of the communication routes and safe-havens in
Hence, there developed a race between the jihadist movement and the Russian security forces. Ultimately, the Russians will win this race. However, until then, there will be a growing number of increasingly painful terrorist strikes at the heart of
On March 31, 2010, Dokka Umarov finally claimed in a statement responsibility for the
There would be new and painful retaliations against the Russians “who send their gangs to the
Umarov is serious, and the Kremlin is cognizant.
Analysis By Yossef Bodansky for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on <a href="http://www.oilprice.com/articles-crude-oil.php" target="new">Crude Oil</a>, Geopolitics, Gold and most other commodities. They also provide free political and economic intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com
April 6, 2010