Russians Poised for Confrontation with Muslims
July 21, 2009
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Muslim radicals have stepped up their attacks across Russia's southern tier of the North Caucasus, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
Observers now believe the region is on the precipice of explosion as more provinces come under Islamist influence, giving Moscow reason to be alarmed about security in its southern republics.
The impact has consequences for the southern Caucasus countries of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan where Russia has sought to increase its influence.
Russia has sought to break up Georgia in an effort to re-establish its presence there. Of Georgia's seven regions already two – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – are back under Russian influence even though puppet regimes set up by Moscow run them as "independent countries." The international community does not recognize their sovereignty.
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For Russia, bringing Georgia back under its direct sphere of influence will allow it to take over the one pipeline not presently under its control from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey that provides oil and gas to Europe. Russian presence in Georgia also will give it land access to a critical Russian military base in Armenia, which maintains close ties with Moscow.
A reinvigorated Russian influence in the region would help contain the Islamist threat in the North Caucasus – dubbed by the militants as the Caucasus Emirate. The militants' purpose is to set up an Islamic Caliphate throughout the entire North Caucasus and then spread down into the South Caucasus.
Until now, the three northeastern Russian North Caucasus republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya were regarded as "problem republics." Now, Islamic attacks have spread to include the northeastern republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachaevo-Cherkessia and Adygeya.. Together, they constitute Russia's entire southern tier of territory.
"The Russian army in the region has its work cut out – the entire North Caucasus today is gripped by a wave of armed underground resistance," said Mairbek Vatchagaev of the Jamestown Foundation.
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