Obama Faces Huge Bill on Afghan Security
Daniel Dombey in Washington
The US will have to provide billions more dollars in coming years to finance a huge increase in the size of Afghanistan's security forces, officials and analysts warn.
General Stanley McChrystal, the new commander of US and Nato forces in the country, is in the final stages of a review of policy in which he is expected to conclude that the Afghan army and police force should be increased to a combined total of 400,000.
"Afghan national security forces probably need to grow to somewhere in the neighbourhood of 400,000, which is currently being looked at by the McChrystal review," retired General Jack Keane, one of the architects of the surge in Iraq, told the FT, in comments backed up by serving military officials.
Republican senator John McCain has said: "From everything I've seen, it looks like the Afghan army has to increase significantly. And that's going to be a huge cost."
At present, the Afghan national army and police are respectively about 86,000 and 80,000 strong. Current US strategy seeks to increase the army to about 134,000 - a goal that will be almost doubled if Gen McChrystal endorses the total 400,000 mark. US officials argue that boosting the size of Afghan forces is essential to holding the territory long term and to addressing questions about the sustainability of the war effort.
"It's apparent that the current level of the security forces of Afghanistan is not going to be sufficient in the long run," Richard Holbrooke, US special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, said last week, adding that the US would look at the issue with the country's government after Afghan presidential elections on August 20.
But the sheer size of the contribution needed - an estimated $20bn (€13.98bn, $11.89bn) over five years to set up the new security force - raises questions about sustainability itself.
Afghanistan cannot provide such funds on its own. But the US's partners have made only limited impact on the requirements.
At an April Nato summit, US allies offered $100m to an Afghan National Security Forces trust fund, including a $57m pledge by Germany. In February, Japan offered to pay the salaries of police officers for six months.
More reports and analysis: www.ft.com/afghanistan
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