- Delivering Truth Around the World
Custom Search

Unemployment numbers fudged (data)

Grassfire Nation Update

Smaller Font Larger Font RSS 2.0

Feb. 6, 2012

The entire 2012 presidential election could well hinge on one number: the unemployment rate.

Here's my prediction: Some time around July or August, the official unemployment rate will dip below 8.0%. At that point, Obama will say that "unemployment is lower than when I took office" and will ride this one statistic to re-election. That theme has already been launched with the media touting that the January unemployment rate was the "lowest in years."

What Obama and the media won't tell you is that the unemployment numbers have two built-in, huge fudge factors that are hiding the real unemployment situation in our nation.

First, the numbers are "seasonally adjusted," which is why the actual number of employed persons could decrease from December to January by 737,000 and the Obama team can report an increase in total employment of 847,000. I'm sure this "seasonal adjustment" figure is very complicated and requires hundreds or perhaps thousands of highly trained bureaucrats to even understand let alone calculate. So I'll move on to the second fudge factor: the "labor force participation rate." 

Simply put, the labor force participation rate includes those who are working and those looking for a job. This rate defines the "civilian labor force" which is the basis for the unemployment rate. 

Apparently, if you are so discouraged by the Obama Recession that you quit looking for a job altogether, you are no longer counted. And you effectively cause the unemployment rate to drop. Go figure.

From January 2005 to January 2009 (during Bush's last term), the "participation rate" changed very little (65.8% to 65.7%). In just three years under Obama, the labor force participation rate has reportedly dropped to 63.7%. This two percentage point drop brings the participation rate to the lowest in nearly three decades and makes all the difference. 

If the participation rate had stayed the same, even using the "adjusted" employment numbers for January, the unemployment rate would have been 11%. If the labor force participation rate dropped 1% to 64.7%, the adjusted unemployment rate would be 9.7%. If we use the non-seasonally adjusted numbers and a static participation rate over the past three years, the unemployment rate looks even worse.

Obama can't get re-elected at 11% unemployment or 9.6% unemployment.  He needs that number to be under 8%. So they count a smaller and smaller percentage of the population as actually being in the workforce. And an election is won.

Feel free to check my numbers and let me know what you think. I published a copy of this to my personal blog on the Patriot Action Network where you can comment.

Steve Elliott

Grassfire Nation

P.S. If you are part of the Twitterverse, let me know:


My Math:(all numbers in thousands)

Jan 2012 reported numbers:

Civilian non-institutional population: 242,369

Adjusted participation rate: 63.7%

Labor force: 154,395

Employed: 141,637

Unemployment rate: 8.3%

If Participation Rate same as January 2009:

Civilian non-institutional population: 242,369

Participation rate: 65.7%

Labor force: 159,236

Employed: 141,637

Unemployment rate: 11.1%

If Participation Rate dropped 1% since January 2009:

Civilian non-institutional population: 242,369

Participation rate: 64.7%

Labor force: 156,812

Employed: 141,637

Unemployment rate: 9.7%

BLS Raw Data (Table A-1)

Labor Force Participation Rate (seasonall adj)

Historic data on participation rate

"Like" Grassfire On Facebook

Grassfire Nation Audio Update: "How The Left Is Changing The Language To Defeat The Tea Party" (New)

Liberty News -- News and Views For Our Movement

Patriot Action Network -- Your Social Action Hub

with more than 90,000 members

Sign The Petition Supporting Sheriff Joe Against Obama's Attacks

+   +  +   +   +   +   +   +   +   +  +  +   +   +   +   +   +

Grassfire Nation, a division of Grassroots Action, Inc., is a million-strong network of grassroots conservatives that is dedicated to equipping you with the tools that give you a realimpact on the key issues of our day.  Copyright 2012 Grassroots Action, Inc.

+ + Comments? Questions?