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Next time, Democrats should just order a large pepperoni

lMax Ehrenfreund

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Nov. 7, 2014

If you and your friends order a medium pizza and there aren't enough slices to make everybody happy, someone will probably state the obvious: it would have been a good idea to order a large. Among Democrats looking back at Tuesday's results, though, there isn't much talk about a bigger pie.

Analysts had been pointing out for several months that economic growth has not led to wage growth, and that the working class hasn't really experienced the recovery for themselves yet. As a result, the reasoning goes, they're frustrated with President Obama. Since the election, liberal Democrats have reprised this theme. Sen. Elizabeth Warren's supporters are arguing that her style of egalitarian populism would have helped Democrats reach white, working-class voters. Harold Meyerson excoriates Democrats for failing ordinary Americans. "What, besides raising the minimum wage, do the Democrats propose to do about the shift in income from wages to profits, from labor to capital, from the 99 percent to the 1 percent?" he asked.

A note of despair is audible in questions like these, a sense that while a rising tide might once have floated all the boats, America's tide is going out. Maybe that despair is justified, but Christina and David Romer don't think so. Their recent paper argues that some developed economies recovery quickly, even from relatively serious financial crises. Ours did not, but things didn't have to turn out the way they did. "Maybe the policy response was just bad," Christina Romer says. In other words, policymakers considered a menu of options, and they ordered a medium recovery with no toppings.

Her argument amounts to a serious critique of the Obama administration's economic policy from someone who was crucial in planning the response to the financial crisis. There was more the White House should have done, even though Republicans in Congress insisted on austerity rather than fiscal stimulus.

To be sure, the policies considered in the paper, such as providing financial relief to underwater homeowners, would have both reduced inequality and contributed to growth. Sometimes, the size of the pie changes depending on how it's sliced. The point is making sure there's plenty to go around.

Correction: Thursday's newsletter misspelled the name of a scholar at the Urban Institute. It is "Brian Elderbroom," not "Brian Elderbloom." Our sincere apologies, but don't miss what he has to say about sentencing reform.

What's in Wonkbook: 1) Gay marriage bans upheld 2) Opinions: Higher education, immigration and Mitch McConnell 3) New settlement with banks expected 4) Obama asks for money to fight Ebola 5) The debt ceiling, protests in Ferguson, making house calls and more

Chart of the day: 

New research suggests that inequality in America is increasing much faster than previously thought. Comparing what the wealthiest 0.1 percent of families own to what the ordinary 90 percent of families own, the country is as unequal now as it was during the Great Depression. The Economist.

1. Top story: First appellate court upholds bans on gay marriage

After the decision by the 6th Circuit, it's nearly certain that the Supreme Court will return to the issue. The Supreme Court declined to take up gay marriage cases earlier this year, apparently because lower courts all agreed that gay people had a constitutional right to marry. Now, the court will have to resolve the disagreement between the 6th Circuit and the others that have ruled previously. Robert Barnes in The Washington Post.

Primary source: The ruling.

Judge Jeffrey Sutton holds that voters, not judges, should make the call on gay marriage. In her dissent, Judge Martha Craig Daughtrey points out that courts contradict elected majorities all the time. In fact, that's why the judiciary exists in our system. Erik Eckholm in The New York Times.

Same-sex marriage is banned in only fifteen states, mapped.

Jess Bravin and Brent Kendall in The Wall Street Journal.

JAY MICHAELSON: The circuit court's opinion throws arguments against the wall to see what sticks. It's a drawer full of legal odds and ends, including eight distinct arguments in favor of bans on gay marriage, none of which really stand on their own. The Daily Beast.

2. Top opinions: Higher education, immigration, and Mitch McConnell

PONNURU & LEVIN: Republicans have an opportunity to reform higher education. America's colleges and universities need market discipline. A limit on graduate student loans and a requirement that schools guarantee a percentage of their students' debt would give them a reason to keep tuition low. The Washington Post.

FRIEDERSDORF: McConnell is good at winning, and not much else. His obstructionist strategy has helped Republicans take control of Congress again, but that's all they've done. In the meantime, Obama rewrote health care policy without G.O.P. input and won reelection. The Atlantic.

VINIK: McConnell is on course to shut down the government. With Republican leadership promising to force a vote on repealing Obamacare using the reconciliation process and pledging to stop executive action on immigration using "any procedural means necessary," there is little reason to think that the White House and Congress will avoid shutting down the government again. The New Republic.

YGLESIAS: The theory that Democrats weren't liberal enough doesn't explain their losses. Democratic senatorial candidates, overall, did a good job of talking to and persuading voters. Their totals were much higher than Obama's approval ratings in the states where they ran. It's unclear how much broader an audience they could reach with a more populist message. Vox.

WILKINSON: Immigration will be the wedge that splits Republicans. Divisions within the party are a major weakness that Obama can exploit while fixing a broken a system. Bloomberg.

KRUGMAN: The Republican victory doesn't change the fact that they're wrong about everything. On economic policy, health care and climate change, G.O.P. predictions and prescriptions have been catastrophically mistaken. The New York Times.

3. A new settlement with banks is coming next week 

Authorities worried that banks were manipulating a foreign-exchange benchmark. They are likely to admit wrongdoing only on a narrower accusation, though. The deal will involve British and American authorities and a long list of banks, includings Barclays, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and UBS. Emily Glazer, David Enrich and Christina Rexrode in The Wall Street Journal. 

"List of Wall Street banks on looming forex manipulation settlement is like a parade of too-big-to-failness" -- @pdacosta

The Justice Department had all the evidence it needed to prosecute JPMorgan Chase. One lawyer at the bank sent memos to senior executives informing them that their firm was committing fraud. They ignored her and paid the Justice Department $9 billion in a settlement to keep what she knew from becoming public. Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone.

LEVINE: Bank of America doesn't know how much money it made last quarter. The unexpected legal costs retroactively eliminate the bank's third-quarter profit, even though the alleged manipulation occurred years ago. For banks, though, time is a fuzzy concept. Bloomberg.

Banks are setting aside $16 billion for legal fees, charted.

Jason Karaian in Quartz.

4. White House asks for $6 billion to stop Ebola

The administration expects that lawmakers in both parties will approve. Most of the money would go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sophie Novack in National Journal.

Officials declare outbreak in Dallas finished. Anyone who had contracted the disease would have developed symptoms in the past three weeks. Sherry Jacobson in The Dallas Morning-News.

There are fewer cases in Monrovia, at least for now. The Liberian capital is recovering from the epidemic as people return to work and the treatment centers have more than enough space, but no one thinks that Ebola is gone forever. Lenny Bernstein in The Washington Post.

5. In case you missed it

The first item on the agenda is raising the debt ceiling. The Treasury will reach the limit sometime early next year, and Republicans have to decide whether they'll insist on making an increase partisan again. After that, bipartisan action on free trade is a possibility. Bills on tax reform, immigration, and housing finance are less likely. Neil Irwin in The New York Times.

Police and community leaders in Ferguson, Mo. are preparing for major protests. No one in the St. Louis region expects Officer Darren Wilson to be indicted in the shooting death of an unarmed young black man. They do expect that when the grand jury's decision is announced in his favor, the entire city will be very frustrated. Law enforcement and protesters are already in negotiations. Wesley Lowery and Kimberly Kindy for The Washington Post.

House calls are coming back. The health care system saves money when doctors go to visit patients -- especially those who are too weak or frail to go to the clinic for a check-up -- rather than when patients go to the emergency room. Until Obamacare, though, the system didn't have a way to pay for house calls. Jeff Guo in The Washington Post.

At least 629 service members reported exposure to chemical weapons in Iraq. An internal review ordered by Secretary Hegel found that hundreds did not receive proper treatment after they ran across old, corroded chemical arms in Iraq since 2003. The military kept the discoveries quiet during the war. C.J. Chivers in The New York Times.

In the 2016 campaign season, the economy, again, will be what matters most. Democrats could easily recover from their losses on Tuesday, but not if the economy is weak. Brendan Nyhan in The New York Times.

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