a gargantuan scale, is overshadowing the remaining months of his presidency - with no end in sight. This is a war which America cannot win but which it cannot afford to lose, because a strategic defeat would have incalculable consequences for America's standing in the world. Yet that is the prospect staring Bush in the face.

His immediate problem is that Congress, under Democratic control since last November's mid-term elections, is challenging his control of America's foreign policy. The most striking example was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit last week to Syria - a country which Bush, under Israeli pressure, has sought to isolate and punish.

Worse still, Congress is seeking to deny him the $124b he needs to finance the 20,000 extra troops he wants to send to Iraq unless he agrees to a time table for the withdrawal of all US troops. The Senate wants the troops out of Iraq within a year; the House of Representatives will allow him 17 months. Some bargaining will be necessary to reconcile these two positions but the lesson is clear: The Congress will not fund an indefinite stay of the US military in Iraq.

Struggle

The struggle has become personal in that the Democrats are trying to force the resignation of two men on whom Bush depends and who have, for years, been part of his inner circle. They are his chief aide Karl Rove - known as "Bush's Brain" - and Alberto Gonzales who, before being promoted attorney-general, served as Bush's general counsel when he was governor of Texas. Gonzales, the son of Mexican immigrants, is believed to have provided the legal arguments which allowed torture to take place in such infamous prisons as Abu Ghraib.

Another insider, Matthew Dowd, one of the chief strategists of Bush's 2004 presidential campaign, has now openly declared his disillusion with the president and the war. Bush's spokesmen have tried to deflect this painful blow by saying that Dowd was emotionally disturbed because his own son is due to be sent to Iraq.

Bush has lost a good deal more than the US Congress. He has lost the confidence of the American people who, in their great majority, want the war to end and the troops brought home. The New York Times commented last week that "Bush seems increasingly isolated, clinging to a fantasy version of Iraq that is more and more disconnected from reality".

In Europe, Bush is losing his closest ally, Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair who, slowly but surely, has distanced himself from Bush's disastrous foreign policy. British troops are being steadily withdrawn from Iraq and will soon be down to negligible numbers. At the same time, Blair's "dialogue" with Tehran, which led to the release of the 15 British navy personnel captured in the Gulf by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, is in sharp contrast with the bullying rhetoric Bush continues to direct against the Islamic republic. In the Arab world, Bush is in danger of losing an important ally - King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia who, at the recent Arab Summit in Riyadh, boldly described America's occupation of Iraq as "illegitimate". The King has good reason to be angry: his efforts to resolve inter-Arab conflicts are being sabotaged by Washington.

Boycott

The King brokered the Makkah agreement between Fatah and Hamas which led to the formation of the Palestinian national unity government. But the US and Israel continue to boycott that government. They want Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to defeat Hamas, not to make it a partner in government. In Lebanon, the King is seeking to promote national reconciliation by bringing all factions to a conference. The US and Israel want Hezbollah destroyed not co-opted into the political process.

The King has entered into a dialogue with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and has made peace with Syria's President Bashar Al Assad. In contrast, Washington and Tel Aviv insist on demonising both Iran and Syria as "state-sponsors of terrorism" and members of an "axis of evil".

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners have another reason for concern. The protection the US has traditionally provided is beginning to seem more of a liability than an asset. The US is seeking to mobilise them against the regime in Tehran, ignoring the fact that the Gulf's trade and family ties with Iran are both ancient and dense.

Another subject of controversy affecting US-Saudi relations is that a major US arms package for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf - estimated at between $5b and $10b - is being held up because of Israeli objections.

According to press reports, Israel is urging the US not to supply the Saudi Air Force with precision-guided weapons but instead to increase its military aid to the IDF from $2.4b to $3b.

Bush's predicament is that, in making war on Iraq and in adopting a range of anti-Arab policies, he has been unduly influenced by neocon advisers, close to Israel's Likud. Can he now free himself from this influence in time to rescue something of his presidency?

Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.