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Bhutto Assassination Sets Off Political Earthquake in Already Unstable Pakistan
Juliette Terzieff
Bhutto's life was characterized by tragic deaths in her family, a historic rise to the pinnacle of Pakistani politics and corruption scandals that drove her into repeated exile as Pakistan's well-oiled rumor mills ran wild.
Bhutto was loved and reviled in almost equal measure. Her supporters revered her as the best hope for Pakistan's future; her opponents blasted her for wanting power at any cost and cutting backroom deals with the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
"Whatever you thought of her politics, Benazir was a symbol in Pakistan. With her death any divisiveness she engendered ends and her symbolism changes. Bhutto joins those who have paid the biggest price for their efforts to find the stability and prosperity most Pakistanis desire," said Talat Hassan, a Karachi-based political analyst.
If there were such a thing as a political Richter Scale, Bhutto's death would be a 10 -- and the ripple effects began immediately in its wake, with expressions of sorrow, dashed hope and outright rage that reverberated around the world.
"She was a ray of hope in an otherwise suffocating atmosphere of control under the current existing leadership," said Shahnaz Bokhari, head of Islamabad's Progressive Women's Association. "Unfortunately there was no second line of leadership and so a voice, a force, of moderation has been silenced."
Fellow opposition leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif raced to the Rawalpindi hospital where Bhutto underwent surgery to commiserate with her supporters, where he vowed to continue her fight for a return to democracy. Sharif subsequently announced his party would boycott the upcoming elections on Jan. 8.
Outraged Bhutto supporters took to the streets of Pakistan's major cities, venting their anger by setting fire to buildings, smashing store windows, stoning passing cars and police officers, and ripping down election posters. By Friday morning, 17 people had died in the violence and Pakistani security forces had been given orders to open fire on rioters to quell the violence.
President Musharraf blamed extremists for the attack, appealed for calm and declared a three-day mourning period as the country waited to hear if elections would go ahead as scheduled.
World leaders chimed in with immediate, and in some cases emotional, condemnations of the attack that left Bhutto and 22 others dead. In Washington, the Bush administration's hopes of exchanging the Musharraf dictatorship for a Bhutto-led charge back towards democracy were in disarray.
Bush said Bhutto understood the risks involved in her return to Pakistan "yet she refused to allow assassins to dictate the course of her country."
Bhutto's dramatic death was perhaps fitting considering the epic story of her life.
As a young woman, she was drawn into political life after the 1979 hanging of her father, former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, becoming in 1998, at the age of 35, the Muslim's world's first elected female prime minister.
The Western-educated Bhutto's rule was clouded by allegations of corruption and clashes with religious and military leaders. Her first tenure as prime minister lasted only 20 months. She was re-elected in 1993 and ruled until 1996 before fleeing Pakistan in 1999 to avoid a corruption conviction, vowing to return one day.
Next Page: Leading her party from exile . . .
Dedicated to combating extremism and militancy, Bhutto led the Pakistan People's Party from exile for eight years, watching and working from the sidelines as her country struggled to find a footing in the post-September 11 world, battle growing extremism and cope with the heavy-handed rule of Musharraf.
Along the way, Bhutto lost both of her brothers -- one shot, the other allegedly poisoned -- as the Bhuttos' political fortunes waxed and waned over the last two decades.
Bhutto returned to Pakistan from an eight-year exile in October 2007, fully aware of the danger in which she placed herself. Shortly before her return, she told CNN her father had taught her "that one has to stand up for the principles they believe in" and that democracy and moderation were worth risking death.
The day she returned to Pakistan, a suicide attack left 140 of her supporters dead on the streets of Karachi.
"There is great emotional value associated with the Bhutto family and the sacrifices it has made," said Bokhari. "This is a loss for Pakistan that can never be compensated."
Like its most beloved daughter, Pakistan has struggled -- often violently -- to find stability, lurching from crisis to crisis, never quite collapsing, but unable to shake off a legacy steeped in bloodshed.
"I won't say there's no hope, because then every dream becomes impossible to achieve, but we have never known stability," 71-year old Rawalpindi resident Waqas Riaz said Thursday of the years since Pakistan's 1947 independence. "Pakistanis are tired, frustrated and just scared."
Observers predicted Thursday's assassination would adversely affect the already contentious upcoming parliamentary elections. Pakistan's political parties had repeatedly expressed worries over the fairness of the election given Musharraf's recent manhandling of the judiciary and election process. With Sharif's party announcing a boycott and Bhutto's party leaderless and in disarray, the vote is likely to confer little legitimacy to the winner.
Pakistanis are waiting to see if Musharraf will delay or cancel the elections and the country's return to democratic rule, or perhaps even re-instate the overwhelmingly unpopular emergency rule he declared in November.
"For some time now this country has lived in a state of crisis, largely created by the man who claimed to be bringing stability. Now the one true challenger to Musharraf's rule has been silenced and anything is possible," said Hassan.
Bhutto's death came at a time when Musharraf found himself battling increased domestic and international skepticism over his methods and his motives.
The majority of Pakistanis view the former general's rule negatively and as an impediment to democracy. Musharraf's November declaration of emergency rule under the guise of fighting extremism also was used to silence Pakistan's media and judiciary.
U.S. officials had raised serious questions in recent days about continuing the flow of aid to Pakistan -- $10 billion since 2001 -- and whether Musharraf is committed or able to follow through on his promises to address Pakistan's problems with Islamist extremists.
By Friday morning, there were few clear indications of what Bhutto's death would bring for the troubled country, but many new questions.
"This won't create instability in Pakistan because instability is already a reality there," said Anthony Cordesman of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The most critical decision will be whether Musharraf and other politicians see this situation as an opportunity to forge a consensus and move the country forward, or take advantage of it for individual gain."
Juliette Terzieff is a freelance journalist and a regular WPR contributor.
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