Hurricane Forecast Day Before Season's Start: 17 Names Storms, 9 Hurricanes, 5 of Them Intense
June 1, 2007
AP
FORT COLLINS (AP) — With the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season a few hours away, researcher William Gray released his newest forecast Thursday still showing an expectation for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.
Gray, based at Colorado State University, described it as a very active season. He said there was a 74% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast.
Averages Based on Data 1950-2000 May 31
Forecast for 2007
Named Storms 9.6 17
Named Storm Days 49.1 85
Hurricanes 5.9 9
Hurricane Days 24.5 40
Intense Hurricanes 2.3 5
Intense Hurricane Days 5.0 11
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 74 (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 50% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 49% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
There is a 50% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, according to the new forecast; the long-term average is 31%.
The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, is 49%; the long-term average is 30%. There is also an above-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, according to the forecast.
Thursday's forecast was largely unchanged from Gray's last forecast, released in early April.
"We expect an above-average hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and lead author of the forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, averages 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms last year and five hurricanes, two of them major. None of the hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.
The devastating 2005 season set a record with 28 named storms, 15 of them hurricanes. Four hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, the worst among them Katrina, which devastated parts of the Gulf Coast.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press.
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