climate change and their failure to plan, let alone adapt to the long predicted changed weather conditions. The majority of deaths in Europe in 2003 were of people over 65 - those who are most at risk of heat extremes.

But even if the French had planned for an increased level of air-conditioning in their aged care facilities - which they did not - would it have been enough? High demand for air-conditioning during extreme heat causes power outages. A frail, elderly person will die in about three days without air-conditioning. But it takes at least a week for them to adapt when the air-conditioning fails, according to the NSW Department of Health.

Here in Australia, with our much hotter climate - how many will die in hospitals and nursing homes as the temperature rises? How many more people in aged care facilities will die because the air-conditioning failed, or because the facility failed to plan a back-up?

And since heatwaves are now as predictable as the first magpies in spring - how long will it be before someone - or their estate - sues?

CSIRO projects these future climatic conditions in Australia:

*an increase in average annual temperature of 1-6 °C by 2070 over most of Australia

* an increase in the average number of extreme hot days and decrease in the average number of extreme cold days

* a decrease in annual average rainfall in the south-west and in parts of the south-east and in Queensland

* an overall drying trend for Australia due to increased temperatures and evaporation and changes in rainfall

* an increase in maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones of 5-10% in some parts of the globe by 2100 and increase in precipitation rates by 20-30%.

Source: http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/impacts/overview.html

There has been almost no public discussion of the ramifications of climate change on the health care sector in Australia. While the CSIRO has projections on the likely effects of climate change in Australia, there has been little work on what that will actually mean for human health outcomes in specific regions. But NSW Health has recently won funding from the NSW Greenhouse Office to do just that.

"There is a lack of specifically Australian information," says Glenis Lloyd, leader of the NSW project. "Much of the existing information is about global issues - and while death from extremes of cold might be an issue in the northern hemisphere, it really isn't of much interest to hospital facilities in Mildura," she says.

Climate naysayers take comfort in the difficulty of absolute predictions by scientists. But the effects of climate change are complex; the “heat”, to coin a phrase, will not be distributed evenly. However, the Australian Greenhouse Office asserts that on average, there will be an increase in annual national average temperatures of between 0.4 and 2.0 degrees Celsius by 2030, and of between 1.0 and 6.0 degrees Celsius by 2070; more heatwaves and fewer frosts. There will be an increase in “high bushfire propensity days”.

Climate change isn't just an environmental problem. It is very much a problem for business, for non-profit organisations, for governments and for faith communities. And for faith communities such as the Catholic Church, which owns and operates about 13 per cent of facilities in Australia’s health care sector, the challenges of our excessive consumption are considerable.

Hospitals, aged care facilities and other health-related industries need to consider their reliance on petroleum products. US public health expert, Dr Dan Bednarz, is a consultant working on how peak oil will affect health care.

"Petroleum renders lubricants, gels, plastic gloves, gowns, packaging, various pharmaceuticals and medicines, toothbrushes, dining utensils, a wide variety of tools and equipment to a vast list of the artifacts of modern healthcare," he writes, in the e-zine Culture Change.

"Heating, cooling and other energy costs in medical facilities have increased about four-fold since the year 2000, while the food served in hospitals becomes more and more expensive as oil and natural gas prices continue to climb," says Dr Bednarz.

Catholic facilities should adapt their services to mitigate the worst of climate change because it is the right thing to do, not because it is good business. But if we do not, we just may well go out of business: a major insurance industry report released in Boston last week warned that climate change ultimately threatens to bankrupt even the largest insurers, noting catastrophic losses in 2004-5 of $US75 billion.

Worldwide, heatwaves claim thousands of lives, killing more people each year than floods, tornadoes and hurricanes combined. If the Australian Greenhouse Office is right, an increase of 2C by 2030 means that a city like Canberra could have an average temperature in the summer of almost 30C. Canberra's summer high now - 42.2C - may reach 44.2C.

When the human body gets to 42C, it starts to cook. The heat causes the proteins in each cell to change irreversibly, like an egg white as it boils. Even before that, the brain shuts down because of a lack of blood coming from the overworked, overheated heart. Muscles stop working, the stomach cramps and the mind becomes delirious. Death is inevitable.

And it is the most vulnerable - the old, the young, the sick and poor people - who will go first. Climate change will indeed test the resolve of Catholic and other aged care systems, to pursue a “preferential option for the poor”.