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Typhoon Soudelor Makes Landfall in Taiwan; 145-MPH Gust In Japan's Ryukyu Islands; More Than 4 Feet of Rain in Taiwan Published Aug 8 2015 07:32 AM EDT weather.com

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Aug. 8, 2015

Highlights:

  • Typhoon Soudelor made landfall in northeast Taiwan at 5:00 a.m. Saturday local time (5:00 p.m. EDT Friday) about 19 miles northwest of Hualien with estimated top sustained winds of 120 mph. This is equivalent to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
  • Winds have gusted over 100 mph in Taiwan and more than 4 feet of rain has fallen in at least one location.
  • Tropical-storm force winds have also arrived in China as of Saturday morning.
  • Soudelor impacted Japan's far southwest Ryukyu Islands Friday into Saturday, where sustained winds of 101 mph with a gust to 145 mph has been confirmed in at least one location.
  • A weakened, but still dangerous Soudelor will now move through the Taiwan Strait and make a final landfall in southeast China late Saturday as a Category 1 equivalent typhoon. From there, it will track inland through Sunday.
  • Earlier this week, Soudelor underwent rapid intensification Monday and became Super Typhoon Soudelor, the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2015.
  • Soudelor made landfall at 5 a.m. Saturday local time in northeast Taiwan. At the time of landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) bulletin said Typhoon Soudelor was a Category 3 equivalent with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (one-minute average).

    Satellite imagery shows that Soudelor has weakened while moving over Taiwan's rugged terrain. Soudelor will now move over the Taiwan Strait and then make a final landfall in southeast China late Saturday as a Category 1 equivalent.

    (MORE: What is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?)

    Peak Wind Gusts So Far

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    Peak Wind Gusts So Far

    The eye first passed south of Japan's southwesternmost islands, which lie just east of Taiwan. Typhoon-force gusts (exceeding 74 mph, or 33 meters per second) were observed at several locations there, including a sustained wind of 101 mph (45.1 m/s) and a gust to 145 mph (64.7 m/s) at Yonaguni-Jima at 3:20 a.m. Saturday Japanese time. A peak gust of 123 mph (55 m/s) was clocked on the island of Ishigakijima at 11:51 p.m. Japanese time Friday (10:51 a.m. EDT in the U.S.).

    In Taiwan, Taoyuan International Airport west of the capital of Taipei has seen measured wind gusts over 90 mph as of early Saturday morning (Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of U.S. EDT). The top wind gust in Taiwan so far is 143 mph (64 m/s) in Su-ao, which is located along the northeast coast. However, the Central Weather Bureau deleted all wind data for this site, so the accuracy may be in question. The Taiwanese island of Pengjiayu, which is located just to the northeast of Taiwan's main island, has seen sustained winds up to 82 mph and a gust up to 131 mph.

    Forecast Path

    Forecast Path

    The red swath depicts the possible path of the center of the circulation. Note that a tropical cyclone's impacts such as heavy rain, high surf, and strong winds extend some distance away from the center of circulation.

    Here is the latest forecast timing of the closest approach of the center of Soudelor, according to the JTWC (all times local):

        Taiwan: Now through the rest of Saturday

        Southeast China: Peak impacts Saturday night (landfall); Sunday into Monday (remnant inland)

    Here's a deeper look at the impacts we expect based on the latest forecast path and intensity.

    Taiwan Impacts:

    Rainfall Totals So Far

    Enlarge

    Rainfall Totals So Far

    Strong, possibly damaging winds will continue on Saturday, slowly winding down as Soudelor moves farther west. This could bring down trees, trigger power outages, and lead to structural damage, particularly of any poorly-built structures. More than two million power customers have lost power at some point in Taiwan as of Saturday morning, according to taipower.com.

    As with many tropical cyclones that affect this mountainous island with a densely-populated west side, rainfall flooding and landslides will also be a danger even after the rain has tapered off.

    Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau radar showed torrential rainfall over northern Taiwan. One of CWB's weather stations in Datong Township, Yilan County, has reported more than 4 feet of rain as of Saturday morning local time.

    Locally over 50 inches of rain is likely over the central and northern mountains of Taiwan. Taipei may see over 12 inches of rain.

    Rainfall Forecast

    Rainfall Forecast

    The yellow, orange, red and pink shadings correspond to the forecast heaviest rainfall amounts.

    China Impacts:

    In southeast China, the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong will see the most significant impacts as Soudelor makes landfall late Saturday into early Sunday. These provinces have a combined population of 200 million. Soudelor's circulation is then expected to curl northward, potentially spreading heavy rain to Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei provinces.

    Some tropical-storm force winds have been reported well ahead of Soudelor's arrival in eastern China as of Saturday morning, local time. A wind gust to 83 mph was reported in Fuzhou.

    Shanghai is at the northern edge of Soudelor's center path. However, gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible.

    Soudelor's center will most likely track well northeast of Hong Kong, so the primary impact there may be an outer band of heavy rainfall.

    Japan's Ryukyu Islands Impacts (Okinawa, Miyako and Yaeyama):

    The center of Soudelor has passed well south of the main island of Okinawa (including Kadena Air Base). A gust to 52 mph was reported at Kadena Air Base early Friday afternoon.

    Impacts have been much more severe south of Okinawa in the Miyako and Yaeyama island groups where strong, damaging winds have occurred. Sustained winds have topped 75 mph and there have been gusts over 100 mph on several islands.

    Bands of rain and gusty winds will continue on Saturday.

    Philippines Impacts:

    Rainbands on the southern edge of Soudelor's circulation have triggered deadly flooding in parts of the Philippines, and this threat may persist into the weekend.

    Strongest of 2015, So Far

    Soudelor intensified rapidly over the western Pacific Ocean after raking through Saipan, a U.S. commonwealth in the northern Mariana Islands.

    Soudelor became the fifth super typhoon of this year Monday after undergoing a replacement of its eyewall, a process which occurs in all intense tropical cyclones. A super typhoon is defined by sustained one-minute wind speeds of at least 150 mph.

    At its peak Monday afternoon (mainland U.S. time), Soudelor was estimated by the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to pack maximum one-minute sustained winds of 180 mph and gusts to 220 mph.

The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Soudelor's central pressure at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday was 900 millibars, making Soudelor the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2015. That central pressure has come up quite a bit, reflecting Soudelor's weakening, to an estimated 945 millibars.

According to the Digital Typhoon database, Super Typhoon Maysak was the year's previous strongest typhoon, bottoming out at an estimated 910 millibars. South Pacific Cyclone Pam in March reached peak estimated sustained winds of about 165 mph (145 knots) in the South Pacific basin. 

Low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures allowed Soudelor to ramp up quickly; the cyclone was just a minimal typhoon 48 hours before reaching its peak intensity.

Saipan: Damage "Extensive"

Intensifying from a Category 1 to Category 2 equivalent storm, Soudelor's eye passed directly over the island of Saipan, home to about 48,000 residents. Saipan is part of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. commonwealth.

A state of disaster and significant emergency was declared by Acting Gov. Ralph DLG Torres.

High winds downed power poles, removed roofs off buildings and flooded Saipan's power plant. About 500 people were in emergency shelters, as of Thursday morning, the Red Cross told the Associated Press. 

“From looking at the damage, I would guess weeks to months to restore power. It took about three to six months to restore service on Guam after Pongsona,” Dr. Phillip Dauterman told the Pacific Daily News in an email. "This is not the total damage of Pongsona, but it is close.”

Saipan residents rationed gasoline, and Guam sent ten generators to power water pumps, the AP reported. Damage is said to be widespread around the island, and power may not be restored for up to two months. 

"I haven't seen a storm like this in 20 years," Gregorio Kilili Camcacho Sablan, Northern Mariana Islands' delegate to the United States congress, told the AP. "Unfortunately, the resources we have are hardly enough to get things up."  

Saipan International Airport recorded a peak wind gust to 91 mph just before 11 p.m. local time Sunday night, as the western eyewall approached, before wind observations dropped off -- not to mention the instrumentation erroneously reported snow -- for about an hour.

Soudelor passed north of Guam but wind gusts over 30 mph and light rain were measured. High surf from Soudelor will continue for the next few days. 

Soudelor, a name contributed by the Federated States of Micronesia, was a legendary chief on the island of Pohnpei, about 1,650 kilometers (1025 miles) east-southeast of Guam.

Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on Super Typhoon Soudelor.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Typhoon Soudelor (PHOTOS)

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