Hurricane High-Risk Areas Have Lost Residents
Brad Heath, USA Today
May 30 5008
By Brad Heath, USA Today
After decades of breakneck growth in high-risk areas, the summer hurricane season is starting with fewer Americans in harm's way.
Photo: Fetid floodwaters surround a home in St. Bernard's Parish, La., a week after Hurricane Katrina devastated the area. In this eastern Louisiana parish, the number of people living in the highest-risk neighborhoods has dropped by two-thirds since 2000. (By Michael Madrid, USA Today)
The number of people who live in coastal areas that are most vulnerable to wind and water has fallen slightly since 2000, reversing a boom that brought tens of thousands of homes and high-rises to low-lying regions from Texas to Georgia, a USA TODAY analysis shows.
About 2.1 million people live full-time in those areas, down less than 1% over the past eight years.
That doesn't mean Americans are thinking twice about living in vulnerable spots, says Robert Hartwig, president of the Insurance Information Institute. Instead, he says, the slowdown is more likely a result of a housing market crunch that's left some homes vacant — and others half-built — in once fast-growing parts of the South.
"Memories are short, and when the economy does recover, you'll see people snap up those properties in coastal areas again," Hartwig says.
The steepest population losses were in the coastal parishes of Louisiana, flattened nearly three years ago by Hurricane Katrina. In St. Bernard Parish, La., a flat expanse outside New Orleans surrounded by swamps and the sea, the number of residents in the highest-risk neighborhoods dropped by two-thirds since 2000.
Part of the reason may be that it is simply more difficult to move to those areas.
Across the Gulf Coast, the areas most vulnerable to hurricanes also suffered the worst damage in the 2005 storms. As a result, rebuilding there has been a longer, more complex task than in other places, says Greg Rigamer, head of the New Orleans planning firm GCR & Associates, which has tracked the region's recovery.
Other parts of the coast, including stretches of Texas and the Florida Keys, also lost full-time residents over that period, though the declines were not as big.
"Saying building on the coast is inherently bad is oversimplifying, but you have to manage the risks," says Florida Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate. "I think we're realizing now that the way we had been doing things isn't really sustainable."
Those high-risk areas — often coveted spots close to the beach — boomed during the 1990s and previous decades as a flood of Americans headed south and developers rushed to build homes to accommodate them. But that rapid growth slowed, and in some places reversed, over the past eight years. Even excluding places hit by Katrina, high-risk areas grew only about 6%, about half the rate of safer places farther inland, the analysis found.
USA TODAY based its analysis on an assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the danger coastal areas would face from wind, flooding and storm surge if a hurricane hits. Mid-Atlantic states, also at risk, were not included.
A government forecast predicted that this summer's storm season, which begins Sunday, is likely to be more active than normal, producing as many as nine hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
The forecasters did not say how many of those storms might strike the U.S. coast, which has not faced a significant hurricane since an onslaught of storms hit Florida and the Gulf Coast in 2004 and 2005.
Despite the slowdown, some vulnerable areas still grew rapidly. In Lee County, around Fort Myers, Fla., more than 42,000 people moved to areas at the highest risk from hurricanes. The county has tried to limit building in some of those places, but it has not been able to overcome the tug of ocean views that brought so many people there in the first place, says the county's public safety director, John Wilson.
So many people have moved in that getting them out in an emergency "is going to be a challenge," Wilson says. "We're looking at different options. And we're recognizing that we may not be able to get everybody out of harm's way."
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2008-05-29-less-live-in-stormy-regions_N.htm
www.standeyo.com/NEWS/08_USA/080602.at.risk.hurric.move.html