June 18,2009

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Congressional investigators are warning the U.S. is underestimating Iran's progress toward developing a nuclear weapon, a position at variance with a 2007 report from the U.S. intelligence community that concluded Iran halted such development

in 2003, according to a report in Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

The question remains which report is closer to the truth.

The new report, issued by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, points to efforts by Iran to thwart United Nations inspectors and use front companies to acquire nuclear components such as carbon fibers and specialized metals for use in advanced centrifuges. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is chairman of the committee.

But at the same time, there is concern that foreign intelligence officials may have provided information to Senate investigators in an effort to disparage the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, or NIE, and raise the alarm level over Iran's activities.

The committee report cites unnamed "foreign analysts" sources say are Israeli intelligence experts. The sources also claim to have new evidence that Israeli intelligence was the source of documents that accuse Iran of hiding nuclear weapons research.

The Senate committee report was written by Doug Frantz, the panel's senior investigator. A former Los Angeles Times reporter, Frantz had met with Israeli officials and was forbidden by them to reveal their national affiliation as a condition for the interviews, according to sources.

Keep in touch with the most important breaking news stories about critical developments around the globe with Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, the premium, online intelligence news source edited and published by the founder of WND.

Israeli officials have been openly critical of the 2007 NIE report. They believe the report diminishes their concerns over what they believe is a secret effort by Iran to develop nuclear weapons. The officials contend Iran may have ended its nuclear weapons development in 2003 only because it had mastered the design and tested components of a nuclear weapon and are only waiting "until it manufactured the fissile material required for several weapons," the report said.

Sources say that the 2007 NIE assessment is curious since the U.S. intelligence community relies primarily on technical means to gather intelligence on Iran, while Israel also relies on human agents in Iran, as do a number of European countries.

The NIE, which stated Iran had shelved its nuclear weapons program four years earlier, initially stunned what was thought to be conventional wisdom that Iran's nuclear program was a cover for its weapons program.

“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," according to an unclassified version of the 2007 NIE. "We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009."

Iran claims that its nuclear development program is strictly for civilian purposes to conserve its oil and gas reserves. As a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, Iran has the right to develop a nuclear capability so long as it is subject to international inspections.

However, the U.S. and especially Israel believe the program has potential military applications. In addition, Iran has played cat-and-mouse games in allowing and then not permitting officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, to undertake inspections at Iran’s various nuclear sites. For years, the IAEA has pushed for so-called intrusive inspections in which inspectors can go to a location with little or no warning.

In 2007 Iran had 3,000 centrifuges at work. Earlier this month, the IAEA said that Iran has some 5,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. Another 2,100 centrifuges are being installed and undergoing tests at Natanz which is the major Iranian underground nuclear enrichment site. Iran's goal is to have cascades of some 55,000 centrifuges in all.

Some experts dispute the quality of the uranium being processed. However, through continued enrichment, Iran could achieve nuclear weapons-quality fissile materials for bomb-making. An increase in the number of centrifuge cascades allows that to happen.

According to David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security, a think-tank on proliferation issues, Iran now has enough low-grade uranium to convert into high-enriched uranium necessary for one atom bomb.

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