
Central banks engaged in international currency battle 'to the pain'
From Dick Eastman
The G20 put supervision of financial sectors on its agenda, and any changes were to be implemented through the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel.
The BIS was formed in 1930, the main actors in the establishment of the BIS were the then Governor of The Bank of England, Montague Norman and his German colleague Hjalmar Schacht.
Currency collapses tend to spur a resumption of economic growth rather than fueling a decline in gross domestic product, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Currency collapses are associated with permanent output losses of about 6 percent of GDP, on average, though the drop tends to appear beforehand, the Basel, Switzerland-based BIS said in its quarterly review yesterday.
“This suggests that it may not be the currency collapse that reduces output, but rather the factors that led to the depreciation.
The positive effects of a weaker currency for international investors is that local assets become very cheap leading to massive foreign investment in rental housing and taking over and acquiring small businesses that were mismanaged into bankruptcy. . Currency collapses occur when the annual exchange rate drops by about 22 percent, according to the BIS, which identified 79 such episodes, “more commonly in Africa than in Asia or Latin America,” since 1960. “They also occurred under all types of currency regimes, except possible floating-exchange-rate regimes, where there are simply too few observations to obtain meaningful estimates,” the BIS said.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged budget cuts worth almost 14 percent of GDP to bring the deficit within the EU limit of 3 percent by the end of 2014. European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said on May 28 that there are “no alternatives” for Greece beyond following the austerity program.
“Before drawing policy conclusions we should emphasise that these results are subject to a number of caveats,” the BIS said in the report. “Most importantly, the analysis does not address the reasons why currency collapses occur in the first place. Our analysis also has little to say about the mechanisms involved after the currency collapse takes place.