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Stopping terrorism is worth any price for Sony

Max Ehrenfreud

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Dec. 16, 2014

Sony Pictures Entertainment has come in for some scathing criticism since its decision Wednesday to cancel the release of "The Interview."

Unidentified hackers severely compromised Sony's systems and publicized embarrassing information about the studio, then threatened violence against moviegoers seeing the comedy's opening over the holidays. U.S. intelligence officials say privately the threat, which cited Sept. 11, 2001, in broken English, came from someone working for North Korea.

Some might see Sony's actions as prudent, others as overly cautious, but they seem unsurprising in a society in which few expenses are spared to prevent potential attacks.

Nate Silver predicts "The Interview" would have grossed $104 million at the box office. That's a lot of money for Sony to give up, especially since the Department of Homeland Security has said there is no evidence the threat is genuine. In other words, Sony is accepting a substantial loss in order not to take any chances whatsoever with consumer safety -- an unusual decision for a business.

Comparing money and lives this way can seem callous, but as Dr. Aaron E. Carroll argues in The New York Times, doing so thoughtfully allows us to save both. One study found that it costs at least $64 million, and possibly much more, to stop a terrorist from killing a single person through typical measures. The evidence that the TSA has actually saved anyone, for example, is weak. If protecting American lives were really the goal, we would be making our roads safer. There are around 34,000 motor vehicle fatalities in the United States a year. According to a report from McKinsey, the benefits of spending on road safety outweigh the costs by an order of magnitude.

But it turns out that when it comes to road safety, we may not actually be willing to do what it takes. Consider Takata Corp., which manufacturers car parts. Regulators have said that Takata has supplied millions of dangerously defective airbags to Honda, Toyota and other automakers. Four deaths have already been attributed to the malfunctioning airbags, but this month, Takata rejected a request from federal regulators to recall its parts across the United States.

Takata argues for recalling a limited number of vehicles and making a priority of replacing those airbags most at risk of a malfunction, and the company has a point: properly functioning airbags don't just grow on trees. The process of replacing the defective components will be time-consuming and costly. Earlier this year, Takata said the losses on its airbags could exceed 45 billion yen ($380 million); now the company says it can't predict the total.

But as the contrast between Takata and Sony indicates, some mortal dangers are less socially acceptable than others.

What's in Wonkbook: 1) Cuba 2) Opinions, including Meyerson on Warren and Winship on wages 3) Fed will be "patient" 4) Cuomo nixes fracking in N.Y. 5) Lobbying plans, D.C. United and more

Map of the day: 

School-age children are much more likely to live in poverty than the U.S. population at large, new data from the Census show. Emily Badger in The Washington Post.

Chart of the day:

Obesity accounts for 9 percent of a typical firm's health-care expenses, by one estimate, but it isn't clear whether programs to help employees slim down have much effect. Police officers and firefighters are the most likely to be obese, as this chart shows, while economists, psychologists and scientists are the least. Lauren Weber and Rachel Emma Silverman in The Wall Street Journal.

1. Detente with Cuba

The United States will normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba. Eighteen months of secret negotiations, aided by Pope Francis, ended in a prisoner swap and a phone call between President Obama and Raúl Castro, the Cuban leader. A U.S. embassy will open in Havana. Peter Baker in The New York Times.

Obama will ask Congress to lift the trade embargo. For now, the administration plans to use executive authority to weaken the embargo, which has now been in place for 54 years. Americans returning from Cuba are permitted to bring home rum and cigars worth $100. Karen DeYoung in The Washington Post.

Farmers, automakers and energy companies see opportunities for export to Cuba. By one estimate, exports to Cuba could reach $4.3 billion annually. Imports of rum, cigars and more could reach $5.8 billion. Paul Wiseman for the Associated Press.

Cuban cigars aren't actually that special. Roberto Ferdman in The Washington Post.

A majority of Cuban Americans now support ending the embargo. That's a drastic change from just fifteen years ago, polls show. Harry Enten at Five Thirty Eight.

Republicans could be losing an important voting bloc in Florida. Younger generations of Cuban Americans, and those immigrants who came here more recently for economic rather than political reasons, do not bear the same antipathy toward the Castro regime. Rebecca Nelson in National Journal.

2. Top opinions

MEYERSON: "Warrenism" appeals to moderates. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is not simply the mirror image of the tea party. She has appeal across the political spectrum. Democrats need her in order to unite working-class white voters with the rest of the unraveling Obama coalition. The Washington Post.

WINSHIP: Workers actually aren't getting less of the pie than they used to. When measured correctly, labor's share of national income has not declined, as wage increases have kept pace with increases in productivity. Forbes.

Bonus depreciation is a waste of money. The subsidy is not especially effective for counteracting a recession, and it's useless at other times. Congress should eliminate it next year. The Washington Post.

DAVIDSON: Football players are using unproven stem-cell therapies. The procedures are exempt from federal regulation, and there have been few credible studies showing that they're effective. The National Football League should fund a careful examination in the interest of protecting its athletes from medical profiteering. Bloomberg.

3. Fed: "Patience" a virtue

The Federal Reserve will likely raise rates sometime next year. "In a statement Wednesday after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed broached the prospect of 'beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy,' the most direct formal reference to raising rates it has made in years." Janet Yellen, the head of the central bank, also said it could be "patient." Jon Hilsenrath in The Wall Street Journal.

The Fed does not want to spoil the recovery. New projections about the economy are much more optimistic, but that hasn't discouraged the Fed from keeping rates low for several more months at least. Cheap oil and very modest inflation give the central bank room to maneuver.  The Economist.

O'BRIEN: How patient is patient? "Sure, unemployment is approaching normal levels, but there are still a lot of people who want full-time jobs who can only find part-time ones, or who have given up looking altogether until things look better. Wages are quiescent, and prices are too. There's just no pressure to raise rates now." The Washington Post.

Did Yellen actually say anything on Wednesday? "Analysts can now spend the holiday season debating whether the Fed will merely be patient or will be patient for a considerable time, or some combination thereof; how long a "considerable time" is, exactly (at least that's a comfortingly familiar question); what it means, monetarily if not spiritually, to be "patient"; and indeed, whether the change in language signifies anything at all." Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, central bankers are very concerned about the Fed's independence. Calls to audit the Fed's books are gaining support in Congress. Central bank officials have been lobbying extensively on the Hill, worried that an audit would reveal too much about the Fed's decisions and interfere with clear communication to investors. Michael Flaherty and Emily Stephenson for Reuters.

 

R&B interlude: "1,000 Deaths" by D'Angelo and The Vanguard (Black Messiah, RCA).

The new album, out this week, is D'Angelo's first in 14 years. Jon Pareles in The New York Times.

 

4. New York bans fracking

New York's Democratic governor will not allow hydraulic fracturing. Andrew Cuomo, citing a new study by the state, said the risks to public health were unknown. Thomas Kaplan in The New York Times.

Primary source: The report by the New York Department of Health.

Cuomo said he wasn't a scientist, and that he would listen to the scientists. Most people who say that sort of thing don't actually do it, but Cuomo did, accepting the advice of state health officials. Rebecca Leber in The New Republic.

Cuomo's decision was the right one. And the decision reveals the need for a comprehensive national regulatory regime that will address local concerns. The New York Times.

5. In case you missed it

Banks plan to lobby for more reversals of Dodd-Frank. But a White House spokesman suggested the president would resist further efforts to undo the finanical reform law in policy riders on spending bills. Peter Schroeder in The Hill.

Google hasn't given up on restraining the NSA. Section 215, a crucial provision in the Patriot Act, expires in June. The search engine sees an opportunity to reform an agency that it believes damages the reputations of U.S. technology companies with clients. Dustin Volz in National Journal

Gov. Jay Inslee announces a cap-and-trade plan in Washington. The program would produce $1 billion in revenue for the state, but it would have to be approved by the legislature. Rory Carroll forReuters.

The Commerce Department retaliates against Asia's solar industry. The department found that manufacturers in China and Taiwan were selling panels for less than it cost to make them, aided by state subsidies, and will impose punitive tariffs on imports. Diane Cardwell in The New York Times.

The economy gets drowsy in hot weather. And that's bad news for a warmer world. A new study finds that in the United States, economic productivity declines by 1.7 percent per degree Celsius on a warm day. The strongest effects are from the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, where people work outside. Chris Mooney in The Washington Post.

The nation's capital will subsidize a new stadium for its soccer team. The District of Columbia will contribute $150 million to building a new stadium in Buzzards Point. The city could have bought the entire franchise for half that price. Matthew Yglesias at Vox.

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